Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging or the passage of time

作者：Harris Grant T^*; Rice Marnie E

来源：Criminal Justice and Behavior, 2007, 34(3): 297-313.

DOI：10.1177/0093854806293486

• violent offenders
• actuarial risk assessment
• violent recidivism
• VRAG

Two studies herein address age, the passage of time since the first offense, time spent incarcerated, or time spent offense free in the community as empirically justified postevaluation adjustments in forensic violence risk assessment. Using three nonoverlapping samples of violent offenders, the first study examined whether any of three variables (time elapsed since the first offense, time spent incarcerated, and age at release) were related to violent recidivism or made an incremental contribution to the prediction of violent recidivism after age at first offense was considered. Time since first offense and time spent incarcerated were uninformative. Age at release predicted violent recidivism but not as well as age at first offense, and it afforded no independent incremental validity. For sex offenders, age at first offense improved the prediction of violent and sexual recidivism. In the second study, time spent offense-free while at risk was related to violent recidivism such that an actuarial adjustment for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide could be derived. The results support the use of adjustments (based on the passage of time) to actuarial scores, but only adjustments that are themselves actuarial.

• 出版日期2007-3
• 单位上海市精神卫生中心