A periodic disease transmission model with asymptomatic carriage and latency periods

作者：Al-Darabsah, Isam; Yuan, Yuan^*

来源：Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2018, 77(2): 343-376.

DOI：10.1007/s00285-017-1199-1

• Delay differential equations
• Disease transmission
• Latent period
• Asymptomatic carrier
• Periodic solutions
• Persistence
• Global stability

In this paper, the global dynamics of a periodic disease transmission model with two delays in incubation and asymptomatic carriage periods is investigated. We first derive the model system with a general nonlinear incidence rate function by stage-structure. Then, we identify the basic reproduction ratio for the model and present numerical algorithm to calculate it. We obtain the global attractivity of the disease-free state when and discuss the disease persistence when . We also explore the coexistence of endemic state in the nonautonomous system and prove the uniqueness with constants coefficients. Numerical simulations are provided to present a case study regarding the meningococcal meningitis disease transmission and discuss the influence of carriers on .

• 出版日期2018-8