科研之友
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摘要
Context: Current decision development in electricity market needs a variety of forecasting techniques to analysis the nature of electric load series. And the interpretability and forecasting accuracy of the electric load series are two main objectives when establishing the load forecasting model. Objective: Considering that electric load series exhibit repeating seasonal cycles at different level (daily, weekly and annual seasonality), this paper concerns the interpretability of these seasonal cycles and the forecasting accuracy. Method: For the above proposes, the author firstly introduces a multiple linear regression model that involves treating all the seasonal cycles as the input attributes. The result helps the managers to interpret the series structure with multiple seasonal cycles. To improve the forecasting accuracy, a support vector regression model based on optimal training subset (OTS) and adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO) algorithm is established to forecast the residual series. Thus, a novel hybrid model combining the proposed linear regression model and support vector regression model is built to achieve the above bi-objective short-term load forecasting. Results: The effectiveness of the hybrid model is evaluated by an electrical load forecasting in California electricity market. The proposed modeling algorithm generates not only the seasonal cycle's decomposition for the time series, but also better accuracy predictions. Conclusion: It is concluded that the hybrid model provides a very powerful tool of easy implementation for bi-objective short-term electric load forecasting.
