A network model for the short-term prediction of the evolution of cocaine consumption in Spain

作者：Santonja Francisco Jose^*; Lombana Ivan C; Rubio Maria; Sanchez Emilio; Villanueva Javier

来源：Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2010, 52(7-8): 1023-1029.

DOI：10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.032

• Cocaine consumption
• Network modeling
• Short-term predictions
• Confidence intervals

Cocaine consumption is a social problem with acute consequences and its dependency can be regarded as a health concern of social transmission. This fact leads us to develop the idea that its transmission dynamics can be studied using epidemiological mathematical models. Under this point of view, in this paper we propose a network model to study the short-term evolution of the cocaine consumer subpopulations. The model parameters are obtained from data source and from an analogue continuous model. Sensitivity of the model parameters is studied. The parameters are associated with prevention and treatment policies and the sensitivity study gives us information about which parameters have more incidence on the future evolution of consumers. Results and discussion are also presented.

• 出版日期2010-10