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摘要
It is a focused issue to forecast early aftershocks. This paper discusses the applicability of the recently developed Omi-R-J method, and compares it with the traditional Reseanberg-Jones (RJ) model in parameters fitting and the effect of aftershock forecasting. Taking the Jiuzhaigou M(s)7. 0 earthquake sequence as an example, we use the sliding-type parameters fitting, forecasting, and statistical tests in multiple time windows, and systematic statistical tests of randomly resampled aftershock sequence to conduct the comparison. The results show that stable and reliable parameters of aftershock sequence can be obtained by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage with significant missing events. The standard deviations of the p-value, c-value, and b-value of the Omi-R-J method are significantly reduced compared with the R-J model. The N-test results show that we can obtain a satisfied forecast result by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage of the aftershock sequence for which the traditional methods such as the R-J model cannot be performed, and the forecasting effect is also better than the R-J model in the subsequent time period. The results of a systematic test by using the randomly resampled aftershock sequence show that the incomplete record of the aftershock sequence has a relatively small impact on the Omi-R-J method. Among them, the decrease in completeness during the whole period has a greater impact on the forecasting result than that in the partial period. These results have certain significance for further application of the Omi-R-J method to the forecast of early aftershocks.
- 出版日期2018-5
- 单位中国地震局; 防灾科技学院
