A drought outlook study in Korea

作者：Kim Young Oh^*; Lee Jae Kyoung; Palmer Richard N

来源：Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2012, 57(6): 1141-1153.

DOI：10.1080/02626667.2012.702212

• drought outlook
• surface water supply index (SWSI)
• abcd model
• global data assimilation and prediction system (GDAPS)
• monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI)
• Korea

Techniques are proposed for developing a monthly and weekly drought outlook and the drought outlook components are evaluated. A drought index, the surface water supply index (SWSI) was modified and used for the drought outlook. A water balance model (abcd) was successfully calibrated using a regional regression, including monthly and weekly factors, and was used to convert meteorology to hydrology. For the monthly drought outlook, an ensemble technique was applied, both with and without monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI). For the weekly drought outlook, a deterministic forecasting technique was applied employing the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS). The methodologies were applied to the Geum River basin in Korea. While only the weekly outlook using the GDAPS has sufficient forecasting capability to suggest it might be useful, the accuracy of the monthly drought outlook is expected to improve as the climate forecast accuracy increases.

• 出版日期2012