A Bayes Linear Approach to Weight-of-Evidence Risk Assessment for Skin Allergy

作者：Gosling John Paul^*; Hart Andy; Owen Helen; Davies Michael; Li Jin; MacKay Cameron

来源：Bayesian Analysis, 2013, 8(1): 169-186.

DOI：10.1214/13-BA807

• Bayes linear kinematics
• Bayes linear methods
• risk assessment
• skin sensitisation
• subjective judgement
• weight-of-evidence

We introduce a strategy for quantifying and synthesising uncertainty about elements of a risk assessment using Bayes linear methods. We view the population of subjective belief structures and the use of Bayes linear adjustments as a flexible and transparent tool for risk assessors who want to quantify their uncertainty about hazard based on disparate sources of information. For motivation, we use an application of the strategy to human skin sensitisation risk assessment where there are many competing sources of information available.

• 出版日期2013