Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

作者：Hu, Beibei^*; Zhou, Jun; Xu, Shiyuan; Chen, Zhenlou; Wang, Jun; Wang, Dongqi; Wang, Lei; Guo, Jifa; Meng, Weiqing

来源：Natural Hazards, 2013, 66(2): 873-886.

DOI：10.1007/s11069-012-0530-9

• Land subsidence
• Scenario analysis
• Economic losses
• Tianjin Binhai New Area

Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area.

• 出版日期2013-3
• 单位华东师范大学; 天津师范大学