Development of West-European PM2.5 and NO2 land use regression models incorporating satellite-derived and chemical transport modelling data

作者：de Hoogh Kees^*; Gulliver John; van Donkelaar Aaron; Martin Randall V; Marshall Julian D; Bechle Matthew J; Cesaroni Giulia; Cirach Pradas Marta; Dedele Audrius; Eeftens Marloes; For**erg Bertil; Galassi Claudia; Heinrich Joachim; Hoffmann Barbara; Jacquemin Benedicte; Katsouyanni Klea; Korek Michal; Kunzli Nino; Lindley Sarah J; Lepeule Johanna; Meleux Frederik; de Nazelle Audrey; Nieuwenhuijsen Mark; Nystad Wenche; Raaschou Nielsen Ole; Peters Annette

来源：Environmental Research, 2016, 151: 1-10.

DOI：10.1016/j.envres.2016.07.005

• Air pollution
• Exposure
• Spatial modelling
• Fine particulate matter
• Nitrogen dioxide

Satellite-derived (SAT) and chemical transport model (CTM) estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 are increasingly used in combination with Land Use Regression (LUR) models. We aimed to compare the contribution of SAT and CTM data to the performance of LUR PM2.5 and NO2 models for Europe.
Four sets of models, all including local traffic and land use variables, were compared (LUR without SAT or CTM, with SAT only, with CTM only, and with both SAT and CTM). LUR models were developed using two monitoring data sets: PM2.5 and NO2 ground level measurements from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) and from the European AIRBASE network.
LUR PM2.5 models including SAT and SAT+CTM explained similar to 60% of spatial variation in measured PM2.5 concentrations, substantially more than the LUR model without SAT and CTM (adjR(2): 0.33-0.38). For NO2 CTM improved prediction modestly (adjR2: 0.58) compared to models without SAT and CTM (adjR2: 0.47-0.51). Both monitoring networks are capable of producing models explaining the spatial variance over a large study area.
SAT and CTM estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 significantly improved the performance of high spatial resolution LUR models at the European scale for use in large epidemiological studies.

• 出版日期2016-11