Adapting Wright's modification of Holt's method to forecasting intermittent demand

作者：Altay Nezih^*; Rudisill Frank; Litteral Lewis A

来源：International Journal of Production Economics, 2008, 111(2): 389-408.

DOI：10.1016/j.ijpe.2007.01.009

• spare parts
• intermittent demand
• forecasting
• trend

The challenge of accurately forecasting demand for spare parts is due to the intermittent nature of their demand. This study compares a recent modification of Croston's method and a method based on Holt's double exponential smoothing taking the firm's competitive priorities into consideration. Wright's modification of Holt's method is presented as a viable alternative when forecasting demand for spares especially when trend is present. Results indicate that firms focusing on minimizing inventory levels as a priority should consider forecasting using the Modified Croston's method. If their priority is high customer service, then the modified Holt's method is superior.

• 出版日期2008-2