Alternatives in assigning short-term counts to seasonal adjustment factor groupings

作者：Tsapakis Ioannis^*; Schneider William H; Nichols Andrew P; Haworth James

来源：Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2014, 48(5): 417-430.

DOI：10.1002/atr.1186

• AADT
• seasonal variations
• traffic management
• monitoring
• transport planning

The precise estimation of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) is a task of significant interest for many transportation authorities and Departments of Transportation. In this study, three methods are developed to improve the assignment of short-term counts to seasonal adjustment factor (SAF) groupings: the traditional functional classification, a discriminant analysis (DA), and a new statistical approach based on a weighted coefficient of variation (WCV). The data analyzed within this study are generated from all available continuous counters within the State of Ohio between 2002 and 2006. The analysis is conducted using SAFs that are separately calculated for the total volume and the directional specific volumes of a site. The results show that the directionally based assignment errors are statistically lower at a 95% confidence interval when compared with those generated by the total volume analysis. It is also found that the hourly time-of-day factors are more important in the assignment process than the average daily traffic. The directionally based WCV produces a decline in the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) over the roadway functional classification by 58% and in the standard deviation of the absolute error (SDAE) by 70%. On the contrary, the directionally based DA lowers the MAPE and the SDAE by 35% and 60%, respectively.

• 出版日期2014-8