Analysis of seasonal extreme flows using peaks over threshold method

作者：Baca Peter^*; Mitkova Veronik Bacova

来源：Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 2007, 55(1): 16-22.

• flood frequency analysis
• peaks over threshold (POT) method
• runoff changes
• seasonal extreme flows

The paper presents review of occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events in a small agricultural basin in the flysh region over the period of 40 years (1964/65 - 2003/04). No human alterations were carried out in the basin over the period studied and hence influence of climatic changes on intensification of water cycle could be evaluated. Peaks over threshold (POT) method was applied separately to winter and summer hydrological events. In comparison with annual maximum series, all mean daily discharge values over a certain thresholds were taken into account for POT frequency analysis. The frequency of POT events has decreased in the past two decades (1984/85 - 1993/94 and 1994/95 - 2003/04). The results reveal that the most extreme values occurred in the 1964/65 - 1973/74 decade, mostly caused by summer rainfall. High event frequency also emerges in the 1974/75 - 1983/84 decade, especially in winter seasons as the consequence of snow melting. It is most likely that influence of climatic changes has not resulted yet in increase of occurrence frequency of POT events in the basin studied over the 40 years period.

• 出版日期2007