A Bayesian hierarchical downscaling model for south-west Western Australia rainfall

作者：Song Yong^*; Li Yun; Bates Bryson; Wikle Christopher K

来源：Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C: Applied Statistics , 2014, 63(5): 715-736.

DOI：10.1111/rssc.12055

• Bayesian hierarchical modelling
• Climate change simulation
• Downscaled rainfall projection
• Downscaling
• Empirical orthogonal functions

Downscaled rainfall projections from climate models are essential for many meteorological and hydrological applications. The technique presented utilizes an approach that efficiently parameterizes spatiotemporal dynamic models in terms of the close association between mean sea level pressure patterns and rainfall during winter over south-west Western Australia by means of Bayesian hierarchical modelling. This approach allows us to understand characteristics of the spatiotemporal variability of the mean sea level pressure patterns and the associated rainfall patterns. An application is presented to show the effectiveness of the technique to reconstruct present day rainfall and to predict future rainfall.

• 出版日期2014-11
• 单位CSIRO