科研之友
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摘要
This paper presents a land use/land change model in forest reserves considering social factors and using Multi Agent-based Simulation (MABS) and cell automata. It is inspired by the Caparo Forest Reserve (RFC) in western Venezuela. The model aims at helping to better comprehend the land occupation process at different forest reserves in Venezuela and Latin America, as a case of management of common resources. In a first version of the model the agents represented are the settler or colonist; the state as a "controller" of land occupation; and a colonist's group organization that is a land occupation motivating entity. Amongst social factors considered are inter-agent imitation for land occupation and negotiation. In a second version of the model a new agent is included, the concessionaires, timber companies that have been granted extraction rights under government supervised management plans. Also, politic power interplay between agents is introduced. Results for both versions of the model are offered. From the first version an emergent exponential behavior is obtained, that of critically self organized systems for the variable "Size of Accumulated Land", where each instance of the variable corresponds to a measure of a colonist's accumulated land size. This variable relates to material inequality among colonists, as in the Gini Index used for measuring inequality of wealth distribution in a region. The second version of the model suggests that the controller's institutional commitment and the concessionaires' pledge to legal compromises are key factors in the efforts to reduce land use change at forest reserves.
- 出版日期2010-9
