Mis-specification analysis of linear Wiener process-based degradation models for the remaining useful life estimation

作者：Tang Shengjin^*; Guo Xiaosong; Zhou Zhijie

来源：Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers - Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability , 2014, 228(5): 478-487.

DOI：10.1177/1748006X14533784

• Predictive maintenance
• degradation
• remaining useful life
• Wiener process
• model mis-specification

The linear Wiener process-based degradation model is commonly used for the lifetime assessment and remaining useful life estimation. This article addresses the effects of model mis-specification of the linear Wiener process for the remaining useful life estimation. First, we study the model mis-specification effects on the parameters' estimation and the lifetime distribution. Then, the effects of model mis-specification on the remaining useful life estimation and the predictive maintenance decision-making are analysed through some numerical examples and a case study. The results show that mis-specifying the linear Wiener process without measurement error as that with measurement error is negligible. However, under the inverse condition, the mis-specification could result in premature maintenances or failure maintenances, which increases the maintenance costs.

• 出版日期2014-10