Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Nomograms Based on the Albumin-Bilirubin Grade to Assess the Outcomes of Radiofrequency Ablation

作者：Kao Wei Yu; Su Chien Wei; Chiou Yi You^*; Chiu Nai Chi; Liu Chien An; Fang Kuan Chieh; Huo Teh la; Huang Yi Hsiang; Chang Chun Chao; Hou Ming Chih; Lin Han Chieh; Wu Jaw Ching

来源：Radiology, 2017, 285(2): 670-680.

DOI：10.1148/radiol.2017162382

Purpose: To construct a nomogram with the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade to assess the long-term outcomes of patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radiofrequency ablation (RFA).
Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, and informed consent was waived. We studied 622 treatment-naive patients with HCC according to the Milan criteria who subsequently underwent RFA from 2002 to 2013. Baseline characteristics were collected to identify the risk factors for determination of poor overall survival after RFA. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model based on significant prognostic factors of overall survival was used to construct the nomogram.
Results: After a median follow-up time of 35.7 months, 190 patients had died. The cumulative 5-and 10-year overall survival rates were 63.1% and 48.7%, respectively. Stratified according to ALBI grade, the cumulative 5-and 10-year survival rates were 80.0% and 67.9% for patients with grade 1, respectively, and 48.6% and 35.1% for those with grades 2-3, respectively (P<.001). Multivariate analysis results showed that patient age older than 65 years, a prothrombin time international normalized ratio greater than 1.1, alpha-fetoprotein level greater than 20 ng/mL, multiple tumors, and ALBI grade 2 or 3 were associated with overall mortality. A nomogram was developed on the basis of these five variables. Internal validation with 200 boot-strapped sample sets had a good concordance index of 0.770 (95% confidence interval: 0.633, 0.876).
Conclusion: This simple nomogram based on the ALBI grade offers personalized long-term survival data for patients with early-stage HCC who undergo RFA.

• 出版日期2017-11