An evaluation of leading indicators of currency crises

作者：Su, Chi-Wei^*; Chang, Hsu-Ling; Zhu, Meng-Nan; Qiao, Zhang

来源：African Journal of Business Management, 2010, 4(15): 3321-3331.

• Currency crises
• binary quantile regression
• probit model
• logit model

This study tries to construct leading indicators for currency crisis using probit model, logit model and binary quantile regression. The empirical results show that the Inflation rate, Stock price index, Import growth rate, export/GDP, direct investment abroad, GDP growth rate, terms of trade changes, financial derivatives and domestic credit/GDP have significant effects on the occurrence of currency crisis. The Logit model is better than the probit model and binary regression quantiles which is certain, and the Financial derivatives and Direct investment abroad are useful for leading indicators of currency crises.

• 出版日期2010-11-4
• 单位厦门大学