科研之友
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摘要
A hydrometeorological model chain is applied to investigate climate change effects on natural and artificial snow conditions in the Schladming region in Styria (Austria). Four dynamically refined realizations of the IPCC A1B scenario covering the warm/cold and wet/dry bandwidth of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the winter half-year are statistically downscaled and bias corrected prior to their application as input for a physically based, distributed energy-balance snow model. However, owing to the poor skills in the reproduction of past climate and snow conditions in the considered region, one realization had to be removed from the selection to avoid biases in the results of the climate change impact analysis. The model's capabilities in the simulation of natural and artificial snow conditions are evaluated and changes in snow conditions are addressed by comparing the number of snow cover days, the length of the ski season, and the amounts of technically produced snow as simulated for the past and the future. The results for natural snow conditions indicate decreases in the number of snow cover days and the ski season length of up to >25 and >35 days, respectively. The highest decrease in the calculated ski season length has been found for elevations between 1600 and 2700 m MSL, with an average decrease rate of similar to 2.6 days decade(-1). For the exemplary ski site considered, the ski season length simulated for natural snow conditions decreases from >50 days at present to similar to 40 days in the 2050s. Technical snow production allows the season to be prolonged by similar to 80 days and hence allows ski season lengths of similar to 120 days until the end of the scenario period in 2050.
- 出版日期2015-2
