Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

作者：Helton Jon C^*; Hansen Clifford W; Sallaberry Cedric J

来源：Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2012, 107: 44-63.

DOI：10.1016/j.ress.2011.07.002

• Aleatory uncertainty
• Epistemic uncertainty
• Performance assessment
• Radioactive waste disposal
• Sensitivity analysis
• Uncertainty analysis
• Yucca Mountain

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, a detailed performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository. The following aspects of the 2008 YM PA are described in this presentation: (i) conceptual structure and computational organization, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in use, (iii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for physical processes, and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified the NRC's regulations for the YM repository.

• 出版日期2012-11