Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater

作者：Uejio Christopher K^*; Christenson Megan; Moran Colleen; Gorelick Mark

来源：Hydrogeology Journal, 2017, 25(4): 969-979.

DOI：10.1007/s10040-016-1521-9

• USA
• Climate change
• Health
• Rainfall/runoff
• Municipal groundwater

This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age < 5 years) from period 2046-2065 compared to 1991-2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991-2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991-2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011-2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: similar to 1.5%, range: -3.6-4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: similar to 3.0%, range: 0.2-7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: similar to 82.0%, range: 82.0-83.0%).

• 出版日期2017-6