A key stakeholder-based financial subsidy stimulation for Chinese EV industrialization: A system dynamics simulation

作者：Lu Chao; Liu Hu Chen; Tao Jie; Rong Ke^*; Hsieh Ying Che

来源：Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, 118: 1-14.

DOI：10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.022

• Key stakeholder
• Financial subsidy
• EV industry
• System dynamics

Successful policy-making for an emerging industry relies on two key factors: adopting a scientific perspective and accurately forecasting the policy's potential effects. By combining Mitchell's score-based approach and expert grading method, this paper identifies the key stakeholders of the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, and proposes a key stakeholder-based policy research framework (G-MIC: Government Manufacturers, Infrastructure, Consumers). Furthermore, a system dynamics (SD) model is outlined, focusing on financial subsidy (FS) policy and the three groups of programs that are set to simulate level of FS, FS allocation, and the demand for realizing the CAO (Civilian Auto Ownership) goal of the Chinese EV industry by 2020. The findings reveal that the following show that a key stakeholder perspective is a better approach to policy research; the SD model constructed under the G-MIC framework extends the methodology of SD; and a "bottom-up" policy-making path is more likely to improve policy outcomes.

• 出版日期2017-5
• 单位上海大学; 清华大学; 上海理工大学