Application of BET_EF to Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005)

作者：Brancato Alfonso^*; Gresta Stefano; Alparone Salvatore; Andronico Daniele; Bonforte Alessandro; Caltabiano Tommaso; Cocina Ornella; Corsaro Rosa Anna; Cristofolini Renato; Di Grazia Giuseppe; Distefano Giovanni; Ferlito Carmelo; Gambino Salvatore; Giammanco Salvatore; Greco Filippo; Napoli Rosalba; Sandri Laura; Selva Jacopo; Tusa Giuseppina; Viccaro Marco

来源：Annals of Geophysics, 2011, 54(5): 642-661.

DOI：10.4401/ag-5346

Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical 'precursor' parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated.

• 出版日期2011