A NEW TREND BASED APPROACH FOR FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN KOREA

作者：Lee Byoung Chul; Park Jinsoo; Kim Yun Bae^*

来源：International Journal of Industrial Engineering-Theory Applications and Practice, 2012, 19(1): 47-56.

• Demand forecasting
• electric power
• moving average

Many forecasting methods for electric power demand have been developed. In Korea, however, these kinds of methods do not work correctly. A peculiar seasonality in Korea increases the forecasting error produced by previous methods. Two big festivals, Chuseok and Seol, also produce forecasting errors. Therefore, a new demand forecasting model is required. In this paper, we introduce a new model for electric power demand forecasting which is appropriate to Korea. We start the research using the concept of weekday average. The final goal is to forecast hourly demand for both the long and short term. We finally obtain the result with accuracy of over 95%.

• 出版日期2012