Accounting for matching uncertainty in two stage capture-recapture experiments using photographic measurements of natural marks

作者：Tancredi Andrea^*; Auger Methe Marie; Marcoux Marianne; Liseo Brunero

来源：Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 2013, 20(4): 647-665.

DOI：10.1007/s10651-013-0239-2

• Closed population
• Monodon monoceros
• Multivariate normal record linkage
• Photo-identification
• Population size estimation

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for estimating the size of a closed population from data obtained by identifying individuals through photographs of natural markings. We assume that noisy measurements of a set of distinctive features are available for each individual present in a photographic catalogue. To estimate the population size from two catalogues obtained during two different sampling occasions, we embed the standard two-stage capture-recapture model for closed population into a multivariate normal data matching model that identifies the common individuals across the catalogues. In addition to estimating the population size while accounting for the matching process uncertainty, this hierarchical modelling approach allows to identify the common individuals by using the information provided by the capture-recapture model. This way, our model also represents a novel and reliable tool able to reduce the amount of effort researchers have to expend in matching individuals. We illustrate and motivate the proposed approach via a real data set of photo-identification of narwhals. Moreover, we compare our method with a set of possible alternative approaches by using both the empirical data set and a simulation study.

• 出版日期2013-12