Near-Field ETAS Constraints and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment

作者：Yoder Mark R^*; Rundle John B; Glasscoe Margaret T

来源：Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2015, 172(8): 2277-2293.

DOI：10.1007/s00024-014-0785-z

The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) statistical model of aftershock seismicity combines various earthquake scaling relations to produce synthetic earthquake catalogs, or estimates of aftershock seismicity rates, based on recent earthquake activity. One challenge to ETAS-based hazard assessment is the large number of free parameters involved. In this paper, we introduce an approach to constrain this parameter space from canonical scaling relations, empirical observations, and fundamental physics. We show that ETAS parameters can be estimated as a function of an earthquake's magnitude m based on the finite temporal and spatial extents of the rupture area. This approach facilitates fast ETAS-based estimates of seismicity from large "seed" catalogs, and it is particularly well suited to web-based deployment and otherwise automated implementations. It constitutes a significant improvement over contemporary ETAS by mitigating variability related to instrumentation and subjective catalog selection.

• 出版日期2015-8