The use of predictive likelihood to estimate the distribution of extreme bridge traffic load effect

作者：Caprani Colin C^*; OBrien Eugene J

来源：Structural Safety, 2010, 32(2): 138-144.

DOI：10.1016/j.strusafe.2009.09.001

• Bridge
• Probabilistic
• Load
• Predictive likelihood
• Extreme value
• Traffic

To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required. Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. An estimate of the distribution of lifetime-maximum load effect facilitates the reliability approach to bridge assessment. Results are presented for some cases of bridge loading, compared to a return period approach and significant differences identified. The implications for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed.

• 出版日期2010