Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems

作者：Dono Gabriele^*; Cortignani Raffaele; Doro Luca; Giraldo Luca; Ledda Luigi; Pasqui Massimiliano; Roggero Pier Paolo

来源：Agricultural Systems, 2013, 117: 1-12.

DOI：10.1016/j.agsy.2013.01.005

• Changed climate variability
• DSP
• EPIC
• Adaptation
• Water management
• Irrigation

Short-term perspectives appear to be relevant in formulating adaptation measures to changed climate variability (CCV) as a part of the European Rural Development Policy (RDP). Indeed, short-run CCV is the variation that farmers would perceive to such an extent that a political demand would be generated for adapting support measures. This study evaluates some relevant agronomic and economic impacts of CCV as modelled in a near future time period at the catchment scale in a rural district in Sardinia (Italy). The effects of CCV are assessed in relation to the availability of irrigation water and the irrigation needs of maize. %26lt;br%26gt;The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the impact of key climatic variables on the irrigation water requirements and yields of maize. A three-stage discrete stochastic programming model was then applied to simulate management and economic responses to those changes. %26lt;br%26gt;The overall economic impact of a simulated CCV was found to be primarily caused by reduced stability in the future supply of irrigation water. Adaptations to this instability will most likely lead to a higher level of groundwater extraction and a reduction in the demand for labour. Changed climate variability will most likely reduce the income potential of small-scale farming. The most CCV-vulnerable farm typologies were identified, and the implications were discussed in relation to the development of adaptation measures within the context of the Common Agricultural Policy of European Union.

• 出版日期2013-5