Mapping b-Value Anomalies Along the Indonesian Island Chain: Implications for Upcoming Earthquakes

作者：Pailoplee Santi^*

来源：Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami, 2014, 8(4): 1450010.

DOI：10.1142/S1793431114500109

• Seismicity
• frequency-magnitude distribution
• earthquake forecasting
• Indonesian Sunda Margin
• Indonesia

In this study, the geospatial frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) b-value images of the prospect sources of upcoming earthquakes were investigated along the Indonesian Sunda Margin (ISM) that strikes parallel to and near the Indonesian Island chain. After enhancing the completeness and stability of the earthquake catalogue, the seismicity data were separated according to their seismotectonic setting into shallow crustal and Intraslab earthquakes. In order to verify the spatial relationship between the b-values and the occurrence of subsequent major earthquakes, the complete shallow crustal seismicity dataset (1980-2005) was truncated into the 1980-2000 sub-dataset. Utilizing the suitable assumption of fixed-number of earthquakes, retrospective tests of both the complete and truncated datasets supported that areas of comparatively low b-values could reasonably be expected to predict likely hypocenters of future earthquakes. As a result, the present-day distributions of b-values derived from the complete (1980-2005) shallow crustal and Intraslab seismicity datasets revealed eight and six earthquake-prone areas, respectively, along the ISM. Since most of these high risk areas proposed here are quite close to the major cities of Indonesia, attention should be paid and mitigation plans should be developed for both seismic and tsunami hazards.

• 出版日期2014-10