Potential impact of climate change on distribution of Larix genus of northeastern China

作者：Leng Wen Fang^*; He Hong Shi; Bu Ren Cang; Hu Yuan Man; Wang Xu Gao

来源：Journal of Liaoning Technical University(Natural Science), 2007, 26(2): 289-292.

In order to explore the impact of climate change on the larch species of northeastern China, this paper predicted the potential distribution of three Larch species current and future by logistic regression model and GIS. Result show that dahurian larch will retreat northwestward 200 kilometers, and retreat northwestward more than 300 km in 2100yr. Korean larch will expand northwestward 200 km in 2050yr; and more 200km in 2100yr. Prince Rupprecht larch will expand northeastward about 280 kilometers in 2050yr, and more 470 km in 2100yr. The change of climate would have great influence on the distribution of larch species. In future, Korean larch and Prince Rupprecht larch would replace the dominant position of Dahurian larch.

• 出版日期2007