A non-probabilistic programming approach enabling risk-aversion analysis for supporting sustainable watershed development

作者：Tan, Qian^*; Huang, Gordon; Cai, Yanpeng; Yang, Zhifeng

来源：Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112: 4771-4788.

DOI：10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.117

• Sustainable watershed development
• Resources management
• Water pollution prevention
• System analysis under uncertainty
• Risk reduction
• Decision making

Due to insufficiency and ineffectiveness of monitoring facilities, variations in natural conditions and changes of human behaviors, watershed planning is interwoven with imprecise data, resulting in a multitude of complexities. A robust interval fuzzy programming approach with superiority inferiority and risk-aversion analyses (RIFP-SIRA) was developed for identifying sustainable agricultural and industrial production strategies at the watershed scale in a highly uncertain environment. RIFP-SIRA represented a novel attempt to tackle synergies of uncertain information in the forms of intervals with non-statistical bounds and conventional intervals. The developed method was applied to a Chinese watershed. A RIFP-SIRA model was formulated and analyzed under three scenarios to investigate the effects of different policies and standards on watershed development plans. Sensitivity of the model's solutions to varied risk-aversion and input-fluctuation levels were analyzed, verifying the superiority of RIFP-SIRA over the existing inexact approaches. This research revealed that RIFP-SIRA could provide local authorities with robust, yet flexible decision plans. It could enable a quantitative analysis over the trade-offs between the economic benefits and environmental risks in the absence of probabilistic information.

• 出版日期2016-1-20
• 单位中国农业大学; 北京师范大学