A stochastic graph process for epidemic modelling

作者：Hosseinkashi Yasaman; Chenouri Shojaeddin^*; Small Christopher G; Deardon Rob

来源：Canadian Journal of Statistics, 2012, 40(1): 55-67.

DOI：10.1002/cjs.10142

• Basic reproductive number
• dynamic random graphs
• foot-and-mouth disease outbreak
• infectious disease network
• Markov property
• stochastic epidemic models
• stochastic processes

A stochastic graph process with a Markov property is introduced to model the flow of an infectious disease over a known contact network. The model provides a probability distribution over unobserved infectious pathways. The basic reproductive number in compartmental models is generalized to a dynamic reproductive number based on the sequence of outdegrees in the graph process. The cumulative resistance and threat associated with each individual is also measured based on the cumulative indegree and outdegree of the graph process. The model is applied to the outbreak data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom.

• 出版日期2012-3