Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction

作者：Martin Rey Marta^*; Rodriguez Fonseca Belen; Polo Irene

来源：Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, 42(16): 6802-6810.

DOI：10.1002/2015GL065062

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability with worldwide impacts. The knowledge of ENSO drivers and the underlying mechanisms is crucial to improve ENSO prediction, which still remains a challenge. The recently discovered connection between an Atlantic Nino (Nina) and a Pacific Nina (Nino), through an air-sea coupled mechanism during the first and last decades of the twentieth century, highlights an opportunity for ENSO prediction. Here a statistical cross-validated hindcast of ENSO along the twentieth century is presented, considering the Atlantic sea surface temperatures as the unique predictor field, and a set of atmospheric and oceanic variables related to the Atlantic-Pacific connection as the predict and field. The observed ENSO phase is well reproduced, and the skill is enhanced at the beginning and the end of the twentieth century. Understanding this multidecadal modulation of the Atlantic-Pacific connection could help to improve seasonal-to-decadal forecasts of ENSO and its associated impacts.

• 出版日期2015-8-28