摘要

Water shortage and irrational allocation have restricted the economic and social development of Jing-Jin-Ji region. 70 percent of water is used for agriculture, while virtual water of agriculture come up to 1854x108m3 which is ten times of the annual water consumption of this area. According to the principle of saving and optimal allocation, the research analyzing the effect of main agricultural products to economic growth, based on calculating ten kinds of virtual water of main agricultural products. The method is fixed effects regression model. The conclusion is as follows: Three products of milk, vegetables, dry and fresh fruit are suitable for production in Jing-Jin-Ji region because of a positive role in development of per capita GDP and low virtual water content; Three products of grain crops, meat and poultry eggs are not suitable for production in Jing-Jin-Ji region because of a negative role in development of per capita GDP and high virtual water content, while a limited amount of grain crops, meat and poultry eggs should be imported to guarantee the regional strategic security; Forest products play an important role in environmental protection and should offer subsidy to producer in spite of a negative role and high virtual water content; cotton belongs to government subsidies product and Oil products and aquatic products could be imported completely.