A Probabilistic Method to assess the Regional Susceptibility of Landslides induced by Earthquake in Kitakyushu City, Japan

作者：Sun, Junjie^*; Wang, Lanmin; Chen, Guangqi

来源：Disaster Advances, 2011, 4(1): 7-18.

• Newmark Stability Analysis
• Earthquake
• Probability
• Landslide Susceptibility
• Monte Carlo Simulation

Here a probabilistic method for assessing the regional susceptibility of landslides induced by earthquake events was developed. This probabilistic method, furthermore, was applied into the Kitakyushu city of Japan, which suffered the landslide disasters induced both by rainfall and earthquake seriously. Failure probability of earthquake-induced landslides based on Monte Carlo simulation (minimizing the uncertainty of slope parameters) and a developed-method after Newmark stability analysis (estimating factors of safety) was calculated. Meanwhile, regional susceptibility maps of earthquake-induced landslides in Kitakyushu city were produced by using the geographical information system (GIS) with different peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and seismic occurrence periods at both conditions of m=0 and m=1 (m, so-called water factor which means a ratio of groundwater level to thickness of sliding layer). Analysis. results of failure probability disclose that the influence factors of slope angle, PGA and m on failure probability (stability) of earthquake-induced landslides would have to be considered carefully in the Kitakyushu city.

• 出版日期2011-1
• 单位中国地震局; 兰州大学; 中国地震局兰州地震研究所