科研之友
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摘要
To protect the health of residents is an important goal of urban energy system optimization and air pollution control. Based on the social and economic development goals of Urumqi City and related requirements on energy saving, emission reduction and environmental protection, this study designed three scenarios at varying constraint levels for energy consumption of the city in 2014-2025. Long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was adopted to predict energy consumption in 2025 and the emissions and concentrations of three major air pollutants, i.e., SO2, PM10 and PM2.5. Meanwhile, Poisson regression model was used to assess the health risks of residents in downtown areas caused by an exposure to the three air pollutants under three scenarios. Results show that compared with the low constraint scenario, 1,583, 3,492 and 4,131 cases of deaths related to SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 respectively can be avoided in 2025 under the high constraint scenario. Moreover, there will be a decrease by 1% in coal consumption, which can avoid about 1,400 people's death due to pollution every year. Therefore, it is suggested that Urumqi City should take stricter energy-saving and emission reduction measures, strictly control coal consumption, and further optimize energy structure, so as to reduce the health risks from the air pollution caused by energy consumption to the largest extent.
