A pattern fusion model for multi-step-ahead CPU load prediction

作者：Yang, Dingyu; Cao, Jian^*; Fu, Jiwen; Wang, Jie; Guo, Jianmei

来源：Journal of Systems and Software, 2013, 86(5): 1257-1266.

DOI：10.1016/j.jss.2012.12.023

• Time series
• CPU load
• Multi-step-ahead prediction
• Fluctuation pattern

In distributed systems, resource prediction is an important but difficult topic. In many cases, multiple prediction is needed rather than only performing prediction at a single future point in time. However, traditional approaches are not sufficient for multi-step-ahead prediction. We introduce a pattern fusion model to predict multi-step-ahead CPU loads. In this model, similar patterns are first extracted from the historical data via calculating Euclidean distance and fluctuation pattern distance between historical patterns and current sequence. For a given pattern length, multiple similar patterns of this length can often be found and each of them can produce a prediction. We also propose a pattern weight strategy to merge these prediction. Finally, a machine learning algorithm is used to combine the prediction results obtained from different length pattern sets dynamically. Empirical results on four real-world production servers show that this approach achieves higher accuracy on average than existing approaches for multi-step-ahead prediction.

• 出版日期2013-5
• 单位上海交通大学