科研之友
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摘要
The landmark international accord reached in the UN climate meeting in Paris last December stipulates the goal of limiting global warming to less than 2A degrees C by 2100. This goal has a solid scientific basis, defined after intensive global research by scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) through modeling future landscapes under different global warming scenarios, showing that 2A degrees C of global warming is the upper limit for maintaining a sustainable Earth. Dahe Qin, an Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group, has participated in climate change research for more than two decades, and knows very well the consequences of 2A degrees C warming. In a recent interview with NSR, Qin says quite clearly, 'Since time is limited for us to halt global warming, to achieve the rosy 2A degrees C target, we must decrease human-produced green-house gas emissions by 40%-70% by 2050, as compared to levels from 2010, and zero (additional) emissions by 2100. This goal is unlikely to be achieved in the high-carbon emission scenario'. Currently, Qin is busy preparing the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6) of IPCC with other scientists to be released in 2022. He indicates that the AR6 report will propose 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)' that emphasize the local effects of global warming, and bring out constructive and specific recommendations for each area and country to deal with the threat and to maintain sustainable development.
- 出版日期2016-3
- 单位中国科学院古脊椎动物与古人类研究所
