Application of the novel fractional grey model FAGMO(1,1,k) to predict China's nuclear energy consumption

作者：Wu, Wenqing; Ma, Xin^*; Zeng, Bo; Wang, Yong; Cai, Wei

来源：Energy, 2018, 165: 223-234.

DOI：10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.155

• Nuclear energy consumption
• Grey system
• Fractional order accumulation
• Optimised parameter
• Energy forecasting

At present, the energy structure of China is shifting towards cleaner and lower amounts of carbon fuel, driven by environmental needs and technological advances. Nuclear energy, which is one of the major low-carbon resources, plays a key role in China's clean energy development. To formulate appropriate energy policies, it is necessary to conduct reliable forecasts. This paper discusses the nuclear energy consumption of China by means of a novel fractional grey model FAGMO(1,1,k). The fractional accumulated generating matrix is introduced to analyse the fractional grey model properties. Thereafter, the modelling procedures of the FAGMO(1,1,k) are presented in detail, along with the transforms of its optimal parameters. A stochastic testing scheme is provided to validate the accuracy and properties of the optimal parameters of the FAGMO(1,1,k). Finally, this model is used to forecast China's nuclear energy consumption and the results demonstrate that the FAGMO(1,1,k) model provides accurate prediction, outperforming other grey models.

• 出版日期2018-12-15
• 单位重庆工商大学; 油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室; 西南大学; 西南科技大学; 西南石油大学