Algorithm based on local breeding of growing modes for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting

作者：Chen, Chaohui^*; Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Xiang, Jie; Ma, Shenjia

来源：Science China Earth Sciences, 2018, 61(4): 462-472.

DOI：10.1007/s11430-017-9167-5

• Convection-allowing ensemble forecasting
• Local breeding of growing modes
• Perturbation structure
• Spread
• Root mean square error of forecast

We propose a method based on the local breeding of growing modes (LBGM) considering strong local weather characteristics for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting. The impact radius was introduced in the breeding of growing modes to develop the LBGM method. In the local breeding process, the ratio between the root mean square error (RMSE) of local space forecast at each grid point and that of the initial full-field forecast is computed to rescale perturbations. Preliminary evaluations of the method based on a nature run were performed in terms of three aspects: perturbation structure, spread, and the RMSE of the forecast. The experimental results confirm that the local adaptability of perturbation schemes improves after rescaling by the LBGM method. For perturbation physical variables and some near-surface meteorological elements, the LBGM method could increase the spread and reduce the RMSE of forecast, improving the performance of the ensemble forecast system. In addition, different from those existing methods of global orthogonalization approach, this new initial-condition perturbation method takes into full consideration the local characteristics of the convective-scale weather system, thus making convectionallowing ensemble forecast more accurate.

• 出版日期2018-4
• 单位中国人民解放军国防科学技术大学