科研之友
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摘要
Flood risk evaluation and prediction represents an essential analytic step to coherently link flood control and disaster mitigation. The paper established a hybrid evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and triangular fuzzy number. It comprises flood risk evaluation and prediction to obtain risk factors ranking and comprehensive flood risk prediction, and then analyzed flood risk response measures. A case study is proposed entailing a flood risk evaluation and prediction in the Lower Yangtze River region. The evaluation results showed that the proposed evaluation and prediction model was capable of adequately representing the actual setting. In addition, a comparison with the previously described AHP and trapezoidal fuzzy AHP, and experimental results are encouraging, which fully demonstrates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model.
