Nomogram including pretherapeutic parameters for prediction of early response after neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer: Results from a prospective randomized study.

作者：Jianwei, Zhang; Yue, Cai; Huabin, Hu; Ping, Lan; Lei, Wang; Meijin, Huang; Liang, Kang; Xiaojian, Wu; Jiayu, Ling; Jian, Xiao; Jianping, Wang; Yanhong, Deng

来源：Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2016, 34(4_suppl): 716-716.

DOI：10.1200/jco.2016.34.4_suppl.716

<jats:p> 716 </jats:p><jats:p> Background: To establish a clinical nomogram with pretherapeutic parameters for predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) and tumor downstaging after neoadjuvant treatment in patients with rectal cancer. Methods: From Jan 2011 to Feb 2015, complete data was available for 309 patients with rectal cancer who received concurrent chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy alone enrolled in FOWARC study. All pre-treatment clinical parameters were collected to build a nomogram for pCR and tumor down-staging. The model was subjected to bootstrap internal validation. The predictive performance of the model was assessed with concordance index (c-index) and calibration. Results: Of the 309 patients, 55 (17.8%) had achieved pCR, 138 (44.7%) patients were classified as good down-staging with ypTNM stage 0-I. Basing on the multivariate logistic regression and clinical consideration, 5 factors were identified to be the independent predictors for pCR and good downstaging, respectively (Table 1). The predictive nomograms were developed (fig 1 and 2) to predict the probability of pCR and good down-staging with a C-index of 0.802 (95% CI: 0.736-0.867) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.672-0.784). Calibration plots showed good performance on internal validation. Conclusions: The nomograms provide individual prediction of response to different preoperative treatment for patients with rectal cancer. This model may help physician in patient selection for optimized treatment. Further external validation is warranted. [Table: see text] </jats:p>

• 出版日期2016-2-1
• 单位中山大学