Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Exchange Rate Reform in China

作者：Zhang, Teng; Li, Yunong^*

来源：Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2017, 53(3): 710-726.

DOI：10.1080/1540496X.2016.1254066

• Exchange rate pass-through
• exchange rate reform
• heterogeneous effects
• policy-based instrumental variable

Exchange rate disconnect is one of the central puzzles in international macroeconomics. Recently there is a growing literature that studies the microeconomic foundations or mechanisms for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. However, the estimations of the exchange rate pass-through vary widely in the existing literature. Our article proposes the use of a policy-based instrumental variable for exchange rate, exploiting the exchange rate reform in China, and finds that 67% of the exchange rate pass-through into the f.o.b. export price of Chinese exports. This is in contrast with the almost full exchange rate pass-through using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. We further find that the export price of homogeneous goods, low-technology goods and goods supplied by domestic non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) is more sensitive to exchange rate changes.

• 出版日期2017
• 单位西南财经大学