UK Foot and Mouth Disease: A Systemic Risk Assessment of Existing Controls

作者：Delgado Joao; Pollard Simon; Pearn Kerry; Snary Emma L; Black Edgar; Prpich George; Longhurst Phil^*

来源：Risk Analysis, 2017, 37(9): 1768-1782.

DOI：10.1111/risa.12704

• Disease
• FMD
• foot
• mouth
• network
• risk
• systemic

This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted features, events, and processes' (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system.

• 出版日期2017-9