Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study

作者：Zhang Yiting; Lee Gladys Hui Ting; Wong Jian Cheng; Kok Jun Liang; Prusty Manamohan; Cheong Siew Ann^*

来源：Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications , 2011, 390(11): 2020-2050.

DOI：10.1016/j.physa.2011.01.020

• US economic sectors
• Macroeconomic cycle
• Financial crisis
• Economic recovery
• Financial time series
• Segmentation
• Clustering
• Cross correlations
• Minimal spanning tree
• Planar maximally filtered graph

We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2008-2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil & gas, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct, statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like, associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a starlike MST in Sep 2009, and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that the US economy is on track to a recovery.

• 出版日期2011-6-1
• 单位南阳理工学院