科研之友
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摘要
The Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei) is an endangered, small range and migratory parrot threatened by habitat destruction and pet trade. We modelled its geographical distribution with the objective of predicting its historical, current and future (in face of climatic changes) geographical distributions. We also tested the assumption that the species tracks similar ecological conditions while seasonally migrating. Finally, we estimated the overlap between its predicted distributions and the current protected areas network. We used eight modelling techniques in an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach consensus distributional scenarios. The modelled historical breeding and wintering ranges covered a larger area than today. Its current year-round distribution is located in the same region as before but decreased by 13%, whereas the breeding range decreased by 32%, and the wintering range by 43%. The future year-round distribution is predicted to decrease by 47% and shift to east by 2060. Even more drastic decreases in range are predicted for breeding (63%) and wintering (91%) ranges. The niches of the breeding and wintering distributions are good predictors of the records of the other season. The greatest variation (SDs) in the predictions comes from modelling tools and GCMs, and little from climatic scenarios. However, variation in predictions were small within high probability regions for modelling tools by higher everywhere for GCMs and climatic scenarios. The Red-spectacled Amazon is currently underrepresented (<1% of year-round range, and <4% of each seasonal range) in the current reserve system. A broad view over all estimated and predicted ranges revealed that a small portion of the range has a very important role in current and future conservation actions for this bird - in the northeast part of state of Rio Grande do Sul and southeast state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.
- 出版日期2010-1
