Annual forecasting of wind speed and power in wind farm based on EMD

作者：Wang Xiaolan^*; Li Hui

来源：Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2011, 32(3): 301-306.

• Average values
• Empirical Mode Decomposition
• Intrinsic mode functions
• Operating condition
• Output power
• Power characteristic
• Prediction accuracy
• Recursive least squares
• Recursive least squares method
• Simulation experiments
• Unit efficiency
• Wind farm
• Wind power forecasting
• Wind power generators
• Wind speed
• Wind speed forecasting

In order to forecast monthly wind speed and wind power of the next year, the data of average wind speed per hour of the history can be used in this paper. The wind speed can be decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF) and trend term by empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, different recursive least square (RLS) models to forecast each IMF and trend term are built up, these forecasting results of each IMF and trend term are combined to o btain the final forecasting results. The simulation experiment shown the average value of the MAPE is 16.25% about wind speed forecasting and the prediction accuracy is improved considerably. Considering power characteristic of wind power generator, unit efficiency and operating conditions, the output power of the wind farm can be obtained.

• 出版日期2011