A reversal of fortunes: climate change 'winners' and 'losers' in Antarctic Peninsula penguins

作者：Clucas Gemma V^*; Dunn Michael J; Dyke Gareth; Emslie Steven D; Levy Hila; Naveen Ron; Polito Michael J; Pybus Oliver G; Rogers Alex D; Hart Tom

来源：Scientific Reports, 2014, 4(1): 5024.

DOI：10.1038/srep05024

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces 'winners', species that benefit from these events and 'losers', species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adelie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a 'reversal of fortunes' as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change 'winners', while Adelie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change 'losers'.

• 出版日期2014-6-12
• 单位中国人民解放军空军电子技术研究所