科研之友
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摘要
Patu Khola watershed lies in Dang Valley of West Nepal. The rocks belonging to the Precambrian Lesser Himalaya and the Miocene Siwalik cover the northern portion of the watershed, while the southern flat area is covered by the Quaternary river terraces. The basin is disrupted by two regional scale thrusts (Bhotechaur Thrust and Kapurkot Thrust) and several imbricate faults making it prone to instabilities. The river valley is heavily populated as the growing population has forced the people to dwell in such risky zone. Thus, it is very essential to develop a landslide hazard map of this basin. In this respect, we have used an evidential belief EBF) model in the GIS environment to know different landslide-susceptible zones in the watershed. For this, a landslide inventory map consisting of 279 different types of landslides was generated from the published topographic maps, aerial photograph, and Google Earth image interpretations and from the detailed filed survey. From the mapped landslides, 80 % were randomly selected for developing the model, and the remaining 20 % were used for validating the model. Twelve different landslide causative factors were considered for this study. Thus, from the analysis of the landslide data and factor maps, a susceptibility map of the region was obtained by using the EBF model. The map was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) of success and prediction rate. The verification result showed that the model performed very well with the success rate of 85.13 %, and predictive accuracy is 86.42 %. The produced susceptibility map can be useful for general land-use planning, as well as it can provide information to the planners for the adaptation of appropriate mitigating measures for landside hazards in the Patu Khola watershed.
- 出版日期2016-5
- 单位中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
