科研之友
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摘要
Drought hazard is the main restrictive factor in the field of food production in China, and climate change may aggravate it over the long run. The present study aims to assess the potential drought hazard at present, as well as determine future different climate change scenarios based on the data of monthly precipitation and temperature. Drought is defined using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. The probability density function of SPEI was used to create the drought hazard index (DH), which provides a comprehensive overview of the frequency and intensity of drought events. The statistical downscale method was used to convert the regional climate model output grid data into meteorological station data for the near future (2020-2050) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results showed that in the baseline (1981-2010), DH is much serious in Jilin compared with Henan. In the near future (2020-2050), DH increases in the case of RCP8.5, and the increased scale is larger in Henan. In the case of RCP4.5, the DH will be flat with baseline in Jilin and slightly increase in Henan. DH may relieve in case of RCP2.6. The results can help to optimize agriculture allocation and policy making with regard to climate change adaptation.
