A varying-coefficient cox model for the effect of CA19-9 kinetics on overall survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer

作者：Chen, Yuntao; Shao, Zhenyi; Chen, Wen; Xie, Hua; Wu, Zhenyu; Qin, Guoyou^*; Zhao, Naiqing^*

来源：Oncotarget, 2017, 8(18): 29925-29934.

DOI：10.18632/oncotarget.15557

• CA19-9
• pancreatic cancer
• varying coefficient model
• biomarker
• prognosis

Purpose: To evaluate the relationship between serum CA19-9 and overall survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer.
Methods: 109 advanced pancreatic cancer patients with gemcitabine based firstline chemotherapy were included. The effect of pretreatment CA19-9 level on overall survival was modeled by Cox proportional hazard regression. The effect of CA19-9 kinetics on overall survival was modeled by an extended Cox regression with a time varying coefficient and a time varying covariate.
Results: Univariate analysis indicated that baseline CA19-9 correlated with OS (HR = 1.66, p < 0.01) and this association remained significant within multivariate analysis (HR = 1.56, P < 0.01). For the analysis of CA19-9 kinetics, the extended Cox model showed that the effect of CA19-9 on overall survival changed with time: increased in the first two months and reached the top at a HR of about 2, then decreased for the next two months to a HR of about 1.56 and finally tended to be stable. The combination of pretreatment CA19-9 and CA19-9 at 2 month may better evaluate the patients' prognosis compared to pretreatment CA19-9 alone.
Conclusion: Pretreatment CA19-9 and CA19-9 kinetics may serve as a useful serum biomarker in advanced pancreatic cancer.

• 出版日期2017-5-2
• 单位复旦大学